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That weld is too cold Matt, either not enough volts, or slightly too high a wire speed. Volts are more likely, taught tha best technique is:
to turn the volts up, probably close to max for yours.
Turn the wire speed down ‘slightly’, you don’t want the pool to feed too much.
Test with the top of a spare bolt
Aim dead centre and just let the nut fill.
You want the arc to remain struck with the stud, if it hits the nut first, the pool is generally too cool to properly fuse with the stud.
Remind me which side this is? I do have a spare I can swap you. I’ll get a child to drag it out, see which side, I also have a pair but those are reinforced and no bearings.
Right, what did I do wrong there? Should be the pic with the ball of weld on the stud.